For the purposes of this diary, the battleground is defined as the thirteen states whose projected margin is within 6% according to today's 538.com figures.  Both major candidates have a 15-85% of carrying these states on Election Day.  The remaining 37 states (and D.C.) are solidly in either Obama's or McCain's camp at this time.

The figures following each state's name are its electoral vote, its margin in the 2000 election, its margin in the 2004 election, and its current margin according to 538.com.  In each case, positive numbers indicate a lead for the Democratic candidate and negative numbers indicate a lead for the Republican candidate.

Michigan (17) +5.13 +3.42 +5.3
Colorado (9) -8.36 -4.67 +5.1
Pennsylvania (21) +4.17 +2.50 +4.1
Virginia (13) -8.04 -8.20 +2.4
Nevada (5) -3.55 -2.59 +0.8
New Hampshire (4) -1.27 +1.37 +0.5
Ohio (20) -3.51 -2.11 +0.3
Florida (27) -0.01 -5.01 -1.0
Indiana (11) -15.63 -20.68 -1.4
North Carolina (15) -12.83 -12.43 -2.3
Missouri (11) -3.34 -7.20 -2.6
West Virginia (5) -6.32 -12.86 -5.0
Montana (3) -25.07 -20.50 -5.3

By most reasonable estimates, Obama has 238 electoral votes firmly in his column, and McCain has 200.  The remaining 100 electoral votes are still in play.  These votes are found in the following eight states, all of which are within 3% according to 538.com's latest estimates:

Florida, 27 EV
Ohio, 20 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Colorado, 9 EV
New Mexico, 5 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV

Obama needs 32 of these 100 votes to win; 31 will result in a 269-269 electoral tie.

According to the Ohio Secretary of State's web site, the current totals in the race for Ohio District 15's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives are as follows:

Franklin County
Mary Jo Kilroy:  87,661 (51.43%)
Deborah Pryce:  82,771 (48.57%)
Total:  170,432
Margin:  Kilroy by 4,890

Madison and Union Counties
Kilroy:  10,439 (35.62%)
Pryce:  18,865 (64.38%)
Total:  29,304
Margin:  Pryce by 8,426

District 15
Kilroy:  98,100 (49.11%)
Pryce:  101,636 (50.89%)
Total:  199,736
Margin:  Pryce by 3,536

The Tax and Expenditure Limitation (TEL) amendment is the cornerstone of Ken Blackwell's economic plan.  Blackwell even postponed putting it on the ballot until this year in the interest of helping his own campaign for governor.

But now, as more and more Ohioans of both parties have criticized the amendment, even Blackwell appears to be having second thoughts.  From today's Columbus Dispatch...

This was the headline - page 1, above the fold - in this morning's Columbus Dispatch...

Churches could face IRS probe
Pastors Parsley, Johnson exploited pulpits to play politics, ministers' complaint alleges
Monday, January 16, 2006
Mike Harden and Joe Hallett
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

More than 30 local pastors last night officially accused two evangelical megachurches of illegal political activities.

In a rare and potentially explosive action, the moderate ministers signed a complaint asking the Internal Revenue Service to investigate World Harvest Church of Columbus and Fairfield Christian Church of Lancaster and determine if their tax-exempt status should be revoked.

The grievance claims that the Rev. Rod Parsley of World Harvest Church and the Rev. Russell Johnson of Fairfield Christian Church improperly used their churches and affiliated entities -- the Center for Moral Clarity, Ohio Restoration Project and Reformation Ohio -- for partisan politics, including supporting the Republican gubernatorial candidacy of Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell.

This week, the Columbus Dispatch has featured one of the five state ballot issues each day.  Page 1 of today's Dispatch featured a well-written and generally favorable summary of Issue 4.  including a thorough description of gerrymandering and its results (lack of competition -- extremism -- polarization) and a series of maps showing Ohio's current Congressional districts in their current form, as portrayed by RON's opponents (the map not only failed to score as well as claimed but was produced by state employees on state time), and a proposed map by RON.  Some excerpts follow...

From the Columbus Dispatch...

Saying central Ohio voters are ready to send a message of change to President Bush and congressional Republicans, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy yesterday said she will run next year against GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce, of Upper Arlington.

The race will pit a proven Democratic vote-winner in Franklin County, home to most of the 15th congressional district's constituents, against a veteran lawmaker who is the fourth-ranking House GOP leader.

According to Dr. Richard Gunther, professor of political science at Ohio State University and a founder of Reform Ohio Now, Arnold Schwarzenegger plans to endorse Ohio Issue 4.  Gunther made these remarks at a meeting this evening in Dublin, northwest of Columbus.

Issue 4 would end gerrymandering in Ohio by placing the responsibility for drawing district boundaries in the hands of a bipartisan panel, and by defining a series of criteria by which disticting plans must be evaluated.  Plans that create the most competitive districts, create balance between noncompetitive districts, and divide cities, counties, and other entities as little as possible would have the best chance of being chosen.

Gunther also endorsed the California redistricting proposal (Issue 77), and plans to travel to California to speak in favor of it.  No word as to whether Arnold will travel to Ohio to support Issue 4.

See the October 18 entry on the following blog for details.

http://loganselm.blogspot.com/

According to the Columbus Dispatch, Issue 4 was trailing, but about a third of the voters were still undecided.  Not surprising considering how difficult it is to explain gerrymandering to the average voter.